[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 May 29 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 May 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low with only B-class flares observed. Region 2548 (N13W68, Cso/beta) showed signs of decay in its trailer spots but managed the largest flare of the period, a B7 flare at 29/0656 UTC. Region 2549 (S14E12, Cro/beta) exhibited decay and was relatively inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares throughout the forecast period (29-31 May).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one through three (29-31 May). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background values.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was enhanced by the influences of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds were elevated in the 500-550 km/s range to begin the period, then gradually decreased to speeds near 430 km/s. Bt was between 4 and 6 nT for most of the summary period while the Bz component was variable with a maximum southward deviation of -6 nT. The phi angle was negative. Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to gradually decrease as the above mentioned CH HSS wanes. Late on day one (29 May), a second enhancement is anticipated due to the arrival of another negative-polarity CH HSS located in the northwest quadrant of the solar disk. The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced on day two (30 May) and begin to recover on day three (31 May).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled for the majority of day one (29 May) with active periods late in the day due to the anticipated arrival of another negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on day two (30 May) with an isolated minor storm period likely due to continued CH HSS effects. Conditions are expected to decrease to quiet to active levels on day three (31 May) as CH HSS effects begin to taper off.

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