[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jun 12 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jun 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low this period. As it approached the west limb, Region 2552 (N15W85, Cao/beta) produced an isolated C6 flare observed at 11/2228 UTC. The region also produced numerous background flares. Both Regions 2553 (S06E49, Hhx/alpha) and 2554 (N08W39, Dao/beta) continued to show slow area growth with background activity observed from Region 2554. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (12-14 Jun).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 205 pfu observed at 11/1620 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with a chance for high levels over the next three days (12-14 Jun) while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the influence of a weak positive polarity CH HSS this period. Solar wind speeds averaged about 500 km/s with peak speeds of 550 km/s observed between 11/1536-1649 UTC. Bt values generally ranged between 5-11 nT while the Bz component varied between +8 nT to -7 nT. The phi angle was variable between a positive and negative sector orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced for the remainder of day one (12 Jun) under the waning influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. A slow return to near-background levels is expected through day two (13 Jun) with the return of a nominal solar wind regime by day three (14 Jun).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels under weak CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (12-13 Jun) as CH HSS influence wanes. Generally quiet conditions are expected on day three (14 Jun) with the return of a nominal solar wind regime.

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