[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jun 13 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jun 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels. Departed Region 2552 (N14, L=002) produced a pair of C-class flares off the NW limb; the largest was a C3 event at 13/0552 UTC. Region 2553 (S06E37, Hhx/alpha) was stable throughout the period. Region 2554 (N08W53, Dao/beta) indicated some leader spot growth and penumbra consolidation, but only produced background level activity. Flux emergence was observed near S11E11. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a chance for C-class flare activity over the next three days (13-15 Jun).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels with a maximum flux of 448 pfu observed at 12/1810 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels this period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels with a chance for high levels over the next three days (13-15 Jun). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of the continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds began the period near 425 km/s and steadily increased to a peak speed of 624 km/s at 13/0532 UTC. The period ended with speeds approaching 525 km/s. Total field values ranged between 6-12 nT while the Bz component was highly variable between +11 nT to -10 nT. The phi angle remained relatively steady in a positive solar sector orientation. Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to begin a slow decrease to near-background levels over the next two days (13-14 Jun) as CH HSS influence weakens and subsides. Another solar wind enhancement is expected late on day three (15 Jun) due to the anticipated onset of another positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels this period under positive polarity CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (13 Jun) due to CH HSS influence with quiet conditions expected on day two (14 Jun) with the return of a nominal solar wind regime. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (15 Jun) due to the anticipated onset of another positive polarity CH HSS.

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