[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jun 24 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jun 24 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued at very low levels due to a spotless visible disk. A single B3 flare was observed at 24/0034 UTC near an area of enhanced plage, formerly Region 2557 (N09W70). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low over the next three days (24-26 Jun).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 136 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period. Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to be at background levels for days one and two (24-25 Jun) due to the redistribution of particles following the CH arrival earlier in the period. Moderate to high levels should return for day three (26 Jun) following the increase in solar wind speeds associated with the CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the continued influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds began the period near 350km/s before seeing a gradual increase to average near 500 km/s, peaking at 560 km/s at 24/0122 UTC. Total field strength initially observed values near 11 nT but averaged near 7 nT through most of the period. Bz was predominantly negative, seeing a maximum southward deviation near -10 nT, with occasional fluctuations into the positive sector. Phi angle was in a mostly negative orientation, with periodic oscillations into the positive sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to reflect CH HSS influence from a series of three negative polarity coronal holes, which should persist through day three (26 Jun). Solar wind velocities are forecast to remain below 600 km/s.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels for the remainder of day one (24 Jun) as negative polarity coronal hole influence continues. Day two (25 Jun) is forecast to see predominantly unsettled conditions, with isolated active levels possible, before returning to mostly unsettled levels on day three (26 Jun) as CH conditions begin to wane.

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