[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2016 Jun 27 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Jun 27 0346 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 - 26 June 2016

Solar activity was very low during the entire summary period with only B-class flare activity observed. No Earth-directed CMEs occurred.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 21-22 Jun and 25-26 Jun following coronal hole high speed stream events. Normal to moderate levels were observed on the remaining days.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet on 20-21 Jun. Mostly quiet conditions were observed early on 22 Jun but activity increased after 22/1800 UTC due to enhanced solar wind parameters and unsettled to minor storm levels were observed. Quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated active periods were observed on 23-24 Jun due to negative polarity CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed on 25-26 Jun with an isolated period of active conditions observed from 26/2100-2400 UTC due to CH HSS effects.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 June - 23 July 2016

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the forecast period with a slight chance for C-class activity.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels from 27 Jun to 01 Jul following CH HSS effects. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 02-03 Jul as a CIR redistributes electrons. High levels are expected to return from 04-07 Jul following a recurrent CH HSS. Moderate levels are expected from 08-21 Jul followed by moderate to high levels on 22-23 Jul following another recurrent CH HSS.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to begin at unsettled to active levels but decrease to mostly quiet levels by midday on 27 Jun and remain quiet through 29 Jun. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected from 30 Jun to 05 Jul with isolated active conditions possible on 03 Jul due to a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet conditions are expected on 06 Jul. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected from 07-12 Jul with minor storms possible on 11 Jul and active periods likely on 12 Jul due to effects from a recurrent positive polarity CH HSS. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to return from 13-18 Jul with unsettled periods possible on 14-15 Jul. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 19-21 Jul due to negative polarity CH HSS effects with an isolated active period likely on 19 Jul. Quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the period.

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