[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jul 09 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jul 09 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity decreased to very low levels with a few background x-ray events observed. Regions 2562 (S06E52, Cai/beta) and 2564 (N09E69, Cao/beta) both exhibited growth during the period. The remaining regions were stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares throughout the forecast period (09-11 Jul).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels with a maximum flux of 909 pfu observed at 08/2055 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels on days one and two (09-10 Jul) in response to CH HSS activity. On day three (11 Jul), a decrease in flux to normal levels is expected by mid to late in the period as another positive polarity CH HSS moves into geoeffective position.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels for the forecast period (09-11 Jul).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed increased from around 480 km/s to an average speed approaching 660 km/s. Total field ranged from 2 nT to 10 nT while the Bz component varied between -8 nT to +7 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a predominately positive sector with some negative sector variability observed between 08/1930 UTC - 09/0330 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced through day one (09 Jul) under a polar connected, positive polarity, CH HSS. Solar wind speeds in the 500-600 km/s range are expected through the remainder of 09 Jul followed by a slow recovery through day two (10 Jul). By mid to late on day three (11 Jul), another positive polarity CH HSS is expected to move into a geoeffective position resulting in an additional enhancement to solar wind parameters. Solar wind speeds in the 550-650 km/s range is expected with the secondary enhancement.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to G1-Minor storm levels due to continued CH HSS activity. An isolated minor storm period was observed during the 08/1200-1500 UTC period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to isolated G1-Minor geomagnetic storm levels through the remainder of day one (09 Jul) as CH HSS effects persist. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day two (10 Jul) as conditions slowly diminish. By mid to late on day three (11 Jul), another CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective causing conditions to once again reach active to G1-Minor geomagnetic storm levels.

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