[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jul 24 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jul 24 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at moderate levels due to a single R1 (Minor) flare observed from Region 2567 (N05W86, Dao/beta). As Region 2567 approached the west limb, it produced an M1/Sf flare observed at 24/0620 UTC. The region also produced numerous weak C-class throughout the period. Proximity to the west limb prevented further region analysis. Region 2565 (N03, L=178) rotated around the limb earlier in the period. The remainder of the disk and limb was quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a continued chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for an X-class (R3-Strong or greater) flare on day one (24 Jul) due to significant flare potential from Region 2567. As the complex of Regions 2565 and 2567 continue to rotate around the west limb, solar activity is expected to decrease to a chance for M-class flares with C-class flares likely on day two (25 Jul) decreasing to a slight chance for C-class flares on day three (26 Jul).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the next three days (24-26 Jul). There is a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm for the next two days (24-25 Jul) due to potential flare activity from Region 2567.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were nominal with solar wind speeds averaging about 375 km/s through 24/0730 UTC. A slight uptick in wind speed to near 420 km/s was observed after 24/0730 UTC. Total field was steady ranging from 6-8 nT while the Bz component was variable between -6 nT to +7 nT. Phi angle began the period in a negative sector and remained so through about 24/0330 UTC. From 24/0330 - 0730 UTC, sector orientation was variable between negative and positive when a switch to a steady positive sector occurred after 24/0730 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be nominal for days one and two (24-25 Jul). By mid to late on day three (26 Jul), a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective enhancing solar wind parameters along with a possible shock arrival from the 23 July CMEs.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Jul) and mostly quiet levels on day two (25 Jul). By mid to late on day three (26 Jul), a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective along with possible weak shock effects from the 23 July CMEs.

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