[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Aug 04 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Aug 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. There were no active sunspots on the visible disk.

A DSF was observed in the NE quadrant of the disk around 03/1700 UTC. LASCO C2 imagery shows a CME signature shortly after at 03/1736 UTC, but is likely from a separate event on the East limb. Imagery analysis concluded that the CME is off the Sun-Earth line and not expected to become geoeffective.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels over the next three days (04-06 Aug).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for days one and two (04-05 Aug). High levels are forecast for day three (06 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period (04-06 Aug).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured at the DSCOVR spacecraft, indicated continued influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed ranged from 550-600 km/s over the period. Total field strength was steady near 5nT. The Bz component was variable throughout the period. The phi angle was positive.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced due to CH HSS effects over the next three days (4-6 Aug).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field started the summary period at G1 (Minor) storm levels then decreased to unsettled to active levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active levels on days one and two (04-05 Aug) due to continued influence from the positive polarity CH HSS mentioned above. Unsettled levels are forecast on day three (06 Aug) as HSS effects decrease.

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