[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Aug 07 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Aug 07 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low with a C1 flare at 07/0535 UTC from Region 2571 (N12W10, Dao/beta). An additional C1 flare was observed at 07/1024 UTC from an unnumbered region beyond the southwest limb. Region 2572 (N13W65, Dao/beta) contributed a few low-level B-class flares and was stable. No Earth directed CMEs were observed during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flares over the next three days (07-09 Aug).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of 16,205 pfu at 06/1445 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to high levels for days one through three (07-09 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated waning influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed decreased gradually from near 600 km/s to near 550 km/s. Total field strength was steady near 5-6 nT and the Bz component was variable. The phi angle was positive.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to decrease slightly on day one (07 Aug) as the current CH HSS effects continue to wane. Enhanced conditions are expected on days two and three (08-09 Aug) as an isolated equatorial CH HSS becomes geoeffective.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached active levels due to CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active intervals possible, on day one (07 Aug). Unsettled to active conditions are expected on day two (08 Aug) with isolated minor storm (G1) periods likely as an equatorial, positive polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective. Mostly unsettled conditions are expected on day three (09 Aug) as CH HSS effects begin to subside.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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