[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Aug 13 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Aug 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2574 (N04W00, Cao/beta) provided multiple B-class level flare events while the remaining three numbered sunspot groups were absent of significant flare activity and displayed a trend of stability. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery during the reporting period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low with a chance for C-class activity on days one through three (13-15 Aug).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels all three days of the forecast period (13-15 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment, as measured at the DSCOVR spacecraft, indicated the waning influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds began the period at approximately 520 km/s and ended the period near 475 km/s. Total field strength was steady near 5 nT while the Bz component did not drop below -2 nT. Phi angle was in a predominately positive sector throughout the period.

Forecast: Ambient solar wind conditions are expected on days one and two (13-14 Aug). Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced late on day three (15 Aug) due to the anticipated arrival of a negative-polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the remainder of day one (13 Aug) and day two (14 Aug) under a nominal solar wind regime. Unsettled to active conditions are expected late on day three as a negative-polarity CH HSS begins to impact the Earths magnetosphere.

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