[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2016 Aug 15 16:10 UTC

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Aug 15 0115 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 - 14 August 2016

Solar activity was at very low to low levels with C-class activity observed on 08, 09, 11 and 14 Aug. Region 2574 (N05, L=173, class/area Dho/290 on 09 Aug) was the most active region recording six C-class flares. The largest of these was a C8/Sf observed at 09/0042 UTC. Regions 2571 (N13, L=268, class/area Dac/200 on 08 Aug) and 2572 (N13, L=320, class/area Dao/110 on 07 Aug) each produced weak C-class flares on 08 Aug. The period ended with a C1 flare observed at 14/1936 UTC from an unnumbered region on the NE limb. A few CMEs were observed during the period, but none had an Earth-directed component.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the summary period. A maximum of 12,032 pfu was observed at 13/1745 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels on 08 Aug through early on 12 Aug due to effects from a positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet levels were observed for the remainder of the period. Solar wind speeds reached a maximum speed of about 675 km/s at 10/0830 UTC. Bt ranged between 3-8 nT while the Bz component varied between +7 to -5 nT early in the period. The phi angle was in a predominately positive sector throughout the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 15 August - 10 September 2016

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class activity through the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 15, 19-23, 26-28, 31 Aug and 01-10 Sep. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G1 (Minor) storm levels on 16 and 30-31 Aug due to recurrent CH HSS activity. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 15, 17-19, 24-25 Aug and 01-08 Sep, all due to recurrent CH HSS activity. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

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