[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Sep 01 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Sep 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2585 (N07E63, Eai/beta) produced a C2 flare at 31/2019 UTC. This region exhibited slight growth in its main leader spots, but is still too close to the limb for accurate analysis of its magnetic complexity. Region 2581 (N12W57, Hsx/alpha) was stable throughout the period, while the remaining numbered regions underwent slight decay and were inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares for day one (01 Sep). An increased possibility for C-class flares on days two and three (02 - 03 Sep) is likely, with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate radio blackouts) as the returning regions from around the east limb continue to progress onto the visible disk.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux were at normal background levels throughout the period. Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux should remain at normal to moderate levels on day one (01 Sep) with high levels likely by days two and three (02 - 03 Sep) in response to enhanced solar wind velocities from CH HSS activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the continued influence of a CH HSS. Solar wind speeds ranged between 397 km/s - 460 km/s, reaching a peak speed near 470 km/s. Total field remained steady between 6 nT - 9 nT, while the Bz component remained mostly southward, with max deflections to near -9 nT. Phi angle was in a predominately positive orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced through day three (01 Sep - 03 Sep) due to the continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds over 500 km/s are anticipated in association with the coronal hole effects.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active, with isolated G1 (Minor) storm levels the latter part of the summary period.

Forecast: Unsettled to active conditions, with isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storming, are expected early on day one (01 Sep), with unsettled to active conditions continuing through days two and three (02 Sep - 03 Sep) as CH HSS influence persists.

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