[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Sep 10 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Sep 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2585 (N09W57, Eko/Beta-delta) was responsible for several low level B-class flares. The largest was a B5 at 10/0823 UTC. Slight decay and separation was observed in the trailing spots of Region 2585. Slight to moderate growth was observed in Region 2589 (N15W08, Dao/beta). New flux emergence was observed near N05E28 late in the period. This new region will be numbered as spot reports become available. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares throughout the forecast period (10-12 Sep).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater the 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with a maximum flux of 2,580 pfu observed at 09/1935 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on days one and two (10-11 Sep) and return to normal to moderate levels by day three (12 Sep). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels with solar wind speeds between 392 km/s and 443 km/s. Total field ranged from 1 to 4 nT while the Bz component was variable between +/-4 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a predominantly positive (away) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at nominal levels through day one (10 Sep) under a nominal solar wind regime. Beginning midday on day two through late on day three (11-12 Sep), a southern polar extension, negative polarity CH HSS is likely to become geoeffective, causing a minor solar wind enhancement. Solar wind speeds around 500-550 km/s are possible as the CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet throughout the period under a background solar wind environment.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet levels through midday on day two (10-11 Sep) under a nominal solar wind regime. Unsettled to active conditions are expected after midday on day two through midday on day three (11-12 Sep) due to the anticipated influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Generally quiet to unsettled conditions are expected late on day three (12 Sep) as CH HSS influence begins to subside.

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