[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Sep 18 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Sep 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. A new region of emerging flux was observed to the west of Region 2592 (N14E34, Bxo/beta) and will be assigned an active region number if it persists.

A filament was observed erupting in AIA/193 imagery beginning after 18/0330 UTC near N17E66. Analysis of subsequent C2 imagery suggests no Earth-directed component was present.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the forecast period (18-20 Sep).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (18-20 Sep). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at near-background levels. Solar wind speeds gradually increased from around 280 km/s to near 350 km/s by the periods end. Total magnetic field strength was variable between 3 nT and 8 nT. The Bz component was variable with a maximum southward rotation of -6 nT. Phi angle was predominately negative.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at background levels on day one (18 Sep). Enhanced conditions are expected on days two and three (19-20 Sep) due to the onset of a recurrent CH HSS. Solar wind speeds in the 550-600 km/s range are anticipated.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day one (18 Sep). Quiet conditions are expected early on day two (19 Sep), increasing to unsettled to active conditions midday, with isolated G1 (Minor) storm conditions likely from the anticipated onset of a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to minor storm conditions are expected to continue into day three (20 Sep) as CH HSS influence continues.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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