[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Sep 19 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Sep 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2593 (N09E03, Dao/beta) increased in both spot count and penumbral area. A small region of flux emerged to the south of Region 2592 (N12E20, Cro/beta) and will be assigned an active region number if it persists. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the forecast period (19-21 Sep) with a chance for C-class flares due to growth of new Region 2593.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (19-20 Sep) with high levels possible on day three (21 Sep) due to effects from a CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters transitioned from near background conditions to slightly enhanced, likely from the onset of an anticipated CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS. Wind speeds underwent a mild increase from around 360 km/s to 380 km/s by the periods end. The total magnetic field strength gradually increased from near 5 nT through most of the period to around 10 nT later in the period. The Bz component rotated in predominantly southward after 16/0530 UTC with a maximum southward value of -10 nT. Phi was predominantly oriented in the negative sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become increasingly enhanced on days one and two (19-20 Sep) due to the influence of a recurrent CH HSS. Solar wind speeds in the 550-600 km/s range are anticipated. CH HSS influence is expected to wane over the course of day three (21 Sep).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected early on day one (19 Sep). An increase to unsettled to active conditions is expected later in the day, with isolated G1 (Minor) storm conditions likely from the anticipated onset of a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm conditions are expected to continue into early day two (20 Sep) as CH HSS influence continues. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (21 Sep) with isolated active periods likely as CH HSS effects gradually subside.

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