[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Sep 21 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Sep 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low due to two C1 flares from Region 2593 (N09W24, Cso/beta) at 21/1039 UTC and Region 2595 (N11W77, Dao/beta) at 21/1151 UTC, respectively. Region 2593 showed slight growth in its leader and trailer spots while Region 2595 remained stable. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery during the reporting period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares throughout the forecast period (21-23 Sep).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on day one (21 Sep) with an increase to high levels possible on days two and three (22-23 Sep) due to delayed effects from a CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed reached a high value of 751 km/s early, then slowly declined to speeds near 525 km/s by the end of the period. Total field was steady near 3 to 5 nT. The Bz component was variable with no significant southward deviations. The phi angle was in a negative orientation. Forecast: The solar wind environment should continue to be enhanced with waning HSS influence expected throughout the forecast period (21-23 Sep).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to influences from a negative polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: Quiet to active, with a slight chance for G1-Minor geomagnetic storm conditions are expected on day one (21 Sep) due to effects from a negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled conditions should prevail on days two and three (22-23 Sep) as CH HSS influences wane.

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