[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Sep 29 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Sep 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2597 (S14W73, Cao/beta) exhibited signs of decay and only produced low level, B-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low with a slight chance for C-class flares all three days of the forecast period (29 Sep-01 Oct) as Region 2597 rotates beyond the west limb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels, and reached a maximum flux of 23,935 pfu at 28/1610 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels all three days (29 Sep-01 Oct), with a chance for very high levels by day three (01 Oct). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to reflect the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed increased from starting values near 615 km/s, reached a peak speed near 800 km/s, and ended the period just over 700 km/s. Total field strength was between 4 to 9 nT, and the Bz component was variable with several prolonged periods of southward direction. The phi angle was in a predominantly positive orientation.

Forecast: Enhanced solar wind parameters are expected to persist as influence from the positive polarity CH HSS continues throughout the forecast period (29 Sep-01 Oct). Solar wind speed is likely to be at peak levels on day one and begin a slow decrease starting on day two.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at active to minor (G1-Minor) storm levels, with an isolated major (G2-Moderate) storm period from 28/1800-2100 UTC, due to continued CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor (G1-Minor) storm levels, with an isolated period of major (G2-Moderate) storming early on day one (29 Sep) as persistent CH HSS influence continues. There is a slight chance for an isolated period of severe (G3-Strong) storming on day one due to the high solar wind speed and occasional periods of favorable IMF orientation. Active to G1 storm levels are likely to continue, with a possible isolated period of G2 levels on day two (30 Sep). Primarily active levels, with isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storming are likely on day three (01 Oct) as CH HSS effects are expected to decrease.

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