[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Oct 17 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Oct 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels due to a C4 flare observed at 17/0038 UTC. The source location for this activity appeared to originate from departed Region 2599 (S15, L=146). Both Regions 2600 (N13W67, Hsx/alpha) and 2602 (N06W05, Cao/beta) were quiet and stable. The remainder of the disk and limb was quiescent. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to persist at very low levels with a chance for C-class flare activity over the next three days (17-19 Oct).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate to high levels with a peak flux of 4,699 pfu observed at 16/1400 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels throughout the forecast period (17-19 Oct). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated continued influence from a southern polar-connected, negative-polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds were enhanced through the period with speeds near 650 km/s early in the period, increasing to about 775 km/s towards periods end. Total field (Bt) ranged between 5-9 nT while the Bz component indicated variability between +6 nT to -5 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a predominately negative solar sector.

Forecast: Enhanced solar wind parameters are expected to continue through days one and two (17-18 Oct) as negative polarity CH HSS influence persists. By day three (19 Oct), a gradual return to more nominal conditions is expected.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels due to negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels, with G2 (Moderate) conditions likely, on day one (17 Oct) due to persistent negative polarity CH HSS effects. Quiet to active conditions are expected on day two (18 Oct) as CH HSS effects begin to wane. Day three (19 Oct) should see quiet to unsettled conditions.

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