[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Oct 21 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Oct 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low with isolated background activity observed. Region 2602 (N07W61, Cao/beta) showed some leader spot consolidation. Region 2603 (N13E10, Bxo/beta) redeveloped spots this period.

A 9 degree long filament, centered near N26W02, was observed erupting in SDO/AIA 304 and GONG imagery at about 20/1300 UTC. A slow-moving, faint CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery lifting off the NW limb, first visible at 20/1636 UTC. Initial analysis with limited coronagraph data and subsequent WSA-Enlil model output suggests a possible weak, glancing blow early to midday on 23 October. More analysis will be conducted as additional imagery becomes available. There were no additional CMEs observed in available coronagraph imagery during the reporting period. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flares over the next three days (21-23 Oct).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 38,252 pfu at 20/1500 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at high levels on day one (21 Oct). On days two and three (22-23 Oct), normal to moderate levels are expected in response to particle redistribution associated with the anticipated arrival of a recurrent CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels for all three days (21-23 Oct).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected nominal conditions. Solar wind speed averaged about 400 km/s, total field (Bt) ranged between 3-5 nT while the Bz component was mostly northward to 3 nT with some brief southward periods to -2 nT. Phi angle was variable, but predominately oriented in a negative solar sector.

Forecast: Ambient solar wind conditions are expected to continue on day one (21 Oct). A recurrent, equatorial, positive polarity CH HSS is expected to enhance conditions on days two and three (22-23 Oct).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day one (21 Oct). On day two (22 Oct), conditions are expected to be quiet to active with likely periods of isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions due to the onset of a CIR in advance of a recurrent, equatorial, positive polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are expected on day three (23 Oct) as CH HSS conditions persist.

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