[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2017 Dec 12 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2017 Dec 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels over the next three days (12-14 Dec).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on days one through three due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels for the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated influences of a positive polarity, polar-connected, CH HSS. Total field gradually decreased from 15 to 5 nT during the period. The Bz component was variable at benign values. Phi angle was oriented in a predominantly positive sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced on days one and two under the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds are likely to reach 500 km/s based on STEREO-A and recurrent data. A slow return to nominal levels is expected by day three.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two as CH HSS effects persist. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day three as HSS effects slowly wane.

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