[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2017 Dec 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2017 Dec 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The solar disk was spotless. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels over the next three days (15-17 Dec).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 248 pfu observed at 14/2100 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the next three days (15-17 Dec). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated near background conditions. Solar wind speeds decreased from about 430 km/s to end the period at 340 km/s. Total field did not exceed 5 nT and the Bz component was variable between +3 nT to -4 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a mostly positive solar sector.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to continue at background levels until late on day three (17 Dec) when elevated wind speeds and enhanced total field measurements will announce the arrival of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Wind speeds are anticipated to exceed 600 km/s with this feature.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on days one, two and three (15-17 Dec). Late on day three, unsettled to active conditions are expected due to the anticipated arrival of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS.

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