[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2017 Dec 23 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2017 Dec 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued to be very low. Region 2692 (N18E10, Dao/beta) produced only B-class activity over the past 24 hours. Only minor evolution was observed in the regions intermediate and trailer spots. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels over the next three days (23-25 Dec).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels all three days (23-25 Dec). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated mostly nominal conditions early on with an increasing trend towards higher values observed late in the period. Total magnetic field strength range from 3-8 nT and the Bz reached a maximum southward flux of -6 nT. Solar wind speeds were between 300-375 km/s. Phi angle transitioned from the positive to the negative sector after 22/2230 UTC.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to continue with minor enhancement over day one (23 Dec). A further increase is expected on day two (24 Dec) due the anticipated influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Enhanced conditions are expected to continue into day three (25 Dec).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Dec). Quiet to active conditions are likely on day two (24 Dec) and continue through day three (25 Dec) due to effects from a negative polarity CH HSS.

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