[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Feb 04 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Feb 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels throughout the forecast period (04-06 Feb).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to persist at normal levels over the next three days (04-06 Feb) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected a nominal solar wind environment. Total magnetic field strength was below 5 nT. Solar wind speeds ranged between 307-355 km/s. Phi was variable in the first half of the period but settled in the positive sector after 03/2145 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced late on 04 Feb from the anticipated onset of influence from positive polarity CH HSS. Enhancements are expected to persist through 05 Feb and trend towards background levels over 06 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast: The onset of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS is expected to cause periods of unsettled and active conditions late on 04 Feb. A decrease to unsettled levels is expected on 05 Feb and quiet conditions by 06 Feb as the solar wind returns to a nominal solar wind regime.

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