[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Feb 19 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Feb 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The solar disk was spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low during the forecast period (19-21 Feb).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels due to influence from CH HSS effects. A peak flux of 2,795 pfu was observed at 18/1750 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels during the forecast period (19-21 Feb) due to elevated wind speeds associated with the recent CH HSS feature. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated persistent, negative polarity CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed began the period near 530km/s, peaked at 648 km/s at 19/0353 UTC and ended the period at approximately 550 km/s. Total field achieved a maximum value of 7 nT while the Bz component was variable between +/-5 nT. Phi angle remained in a predominately negative sector.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced throughout the forecast period (19-21 Feb) due to CH HSS influence.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with an isolated interval of G1 (Minor) storm conditions early on 19 Feb under negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to isolated active levels for the remainder of day one through day two (19-20 Feb) followed by quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Feb) due to persistent CH HSS influence.

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