[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Feb 23 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Feb 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the forecast period (23-25 Feb).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with a peak flux of 2,840 pfu at 22/1855 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period (23-25 Feb).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. Wind speeds increased through the period from beginning speeds near 390 km/s to end the period at about 560 km/s. Total field reached a maximum value of 10 nT while Bz component dropped to a period low of -8 nT. Phi angle was in a predominantly negative orientation.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is likely to undergo occasional enhancements over the next three days (23-25 Feb) due to influence from multiple negative polarity CH HSSs in the southwest quadrant of the solar disk. Some periods of increased solar wind speeds are also likely throughout the forecast period.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with an isolated G1 (Minor) storm period due to effects from negative polarity CH HSS influence. Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (23-24 Feb), with isolated G1 (Minor) storm levels possible early on 23 Feb. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected by day three (25 Feb) under negative polarity CH HSS influence.

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