[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Feb 27 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Feb 27 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2700 (N06W19, Bxo/beta) underwent decay during the period and was void of significant activity. No Earth- directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low, with a slight chance for C-class flares all three days (27 Feb - 01 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels, with a maximum flux of 2,130 pfu at 26/2100 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate to high levels all three days (27 Feb - 01 Mar) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of negative polarity CH HSS influences. Solar wind speeds increased to near 500 km/s. Total field was between 1 and 10 nT. The Bz component had two sustained periods of southward direction at values near -7 nT. The phi angle was predominantly negative.

Forecast: Solar wind speed is expected to remain enhanced on day one (27 Feb) due to connection with an extension of the negative polarity, south polar CH HSS. Solar wind speed is anticipated to remain elevated on day two (28 Feb), but will likely begin to decrease as the CH HSS begins to rotate away from a geoeffective position. Solar wind speed is expected to decrease further on day three (01 Mar).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached G1-Minor storm levels during the 27/03-06 UTC period due to CH HSS influences.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods expected on day one (27 Feb) due to CH HSS effects. Day two (28 Feb) is expected to be quiet to unsettled as CH HSS influences continue, but wane. Day three (01 Mar) is expected to be primarily quiet.

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