[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Mar 03 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Mar 03 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2700 (N07W76) decayed to plage, though still produced a B4 flare at 03/0407 UTC. Coronal dimming was observed in association with the event in SDO/AIA 195 imagery. The ejecta appeared narrow and faint in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery and oriented away from the Sun-Earth line.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low all three days (03-05 Mar) with a slight chance for C-class flares on day one before Region 2700 rotates around the west limb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels all three days (03-05 Mar). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, indicated slight enhancement in total magnetic field strength (Bt) and density. Bt was below 5 nT until an increasing trend began after 03/0700 UTC. A peak flux of 7 nT was observed around 03/1030 UTC. Bz was variable with a maximum southward value of -7 nT observed at 03/0904 UTC. Solar wind speeds remained slow with the majority of readings between 290-350 km/s. Phi was oriented in the negative sector.

Forecast: Recurrence suggests a slight enhancement will continue over day one (03 Mar) from a solar sector boundary crossing which is then likely to transition to weak influence from the extension of the northern polar CH HSS over day two (04 Mar). A return to mostly nominal conditions is likely by day three (05 Mar).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain primarily quiet on day one (03 Mar). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day two (04 Mar) due to weak influence from the extension of the northern polar CH HSS. A return to quiet conditions is expected on day three (05 Mar).

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