[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Mar 19 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Mar 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2702 (N19W74, Bxo/Beta) exhibited minor decay throughout the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels over the next three days (19-21 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum flux of 4,470 pfu observed at 18/1950 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on days one and two (19-20 Mar) following a period of enhanced solar wind. A return to normal and moderate levels is anticipated on day three (21 Mar) due to electron redistribution. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the diminishing influence of a CH HSS this period. Solar wind speeds steadily increased from initial values near 510-525 km/s to a peak value of around 600 km/s, observed between 19/0330-0430 UTC. Total field strength values reached a peak of 10 nT early in the period and Bz was sustained southward between 18/1800-2230 UTC, with a peak deflection of around -10 nT. The phi angle was generally steady in a negative solar sector orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced, but slowly decrease over the course of days one and two (19-20 Mar) as CH HSS influence wanes. Another solar wind enhancement is expected on day three (21 Mar) as another CH HSS becomes geoeffective.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels in response to a prolonged period of southward Bz. G2 (Moderate) storm levels were observed during the 18/2100-2400 UTC period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet and unsettled for the remainder of day one and day two (19-20 Mar) under diminishing CH HSS influence. Active conditions are expected on day three (21 Mar) as another CH HSS becomes geoeffective.

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