[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Mar 21 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Mar 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and the visible disk was spotless. No CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low all three days (21-23 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was high, with a maximum flux of approx 22,100 pfu at 20/2120 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to high levels on all three days (21-23 Mar). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels during the period. Total field and Bz were both at benign values. Solar wind speed decreased from speeds near 450 km/s down to 350 km/s by periods end. The phi angle was variable.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is anticipated to become enhanced on day one (21 Mar) due to influences ahead of an extension of the south, polar-connected CH HSS. Elevated solar wind speed is expected on days two and three (22-23 Mar) due to continuing influences of the CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with likely periods of active conditions later on day one (21 Mar) due to CH HSS effects. Geomagnetic activity on day two (22 Mar) is expected to be mainly unsettled to active, with a likely period of G1 (Minor) storm conditions due to the effects of the CH HSS. Day three (23 Mar) is likely to see unsettled to active conditions, with a chance for G1 storm conditions due to continuing CH HSS influences.

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