[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Mar 23 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Mar 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and the visible disk remained spotless. No CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low all three days (23-25 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum flux of 18,383 pfu observed at 22/1910 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (23-24 Mar). An increase to moderate to high levels is expected by day three (25 Mar) following a period of enhanced solar wind parameters associated with a negative polarity coronal hole. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the initial onset of a CIR preceding a CH HSS this period. Solar wind values steadily increased from initial values in the low 300 km/s range to end-of-period values of around 450 km/s. Total field strength values reached a peak of 10 nT and the Bz component was sustained southward at around -7 nT between 22/1730-2100 UTC.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced over the next three days (23-25 Mar) due to the effects of a CIR followed by the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet and unsettled this period, with an isolated active period (observed between 23/0000-0300 UTC) due to the effects of a CIR preceding a negative polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled and active levels on day one (23 Mar) due to the effects of a CIR. The influence of a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to cause periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions on days two and three (24-25 Mar).

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