[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Mar 25 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Mar 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and the visible disk remained spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low over the next three days (25-27 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux briefly reached high levels this period with a maximum flux of 1,840 pfu observed at 24/2135 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels each of the next three days (25-27 Mar). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the weak influence of a negative polarity CH HSS this period. Wind speed values increased from the low 400 km/s range to a peak of around 495 km/s through the first half of the period, before becoming steady near 450-475 km/s for the remainder of the period. Total field strength values decreased from around 9 nT early this period to end-of-period values near 5 nT. Bz was sustained southward for brief periods with a maximum value of around -7 nT observed. Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced over the next two days (25-26 Mar) due to the effects of a CIR in advance of a recurrent, polar connected, negative polarity CH HSS. By day three (27 Mar), solar wind parameters are expected to slowly return to more nominal levels as CH HSS influence wanes.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached active levels this period due to negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Forecast: Field conditions are expected to be at predominately unsettled to active levels, with likely periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions, on day one (25 Mar) due to influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. Day two (26 Mar) is expected to see quiet to active levels as CH HSS influence persists. By day three (27 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels are anticipated as CH HSS influence begins to wane.

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