[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Mar 27 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Mar 27 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and the visible disk remained spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low over the next three days (27-29 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a maximum flux of 16,540 pfu observed at 26/2205 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels the next three days (27-29 Mar). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of persistent, but waning negative polarity CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed ranged between 450-550 km/s, total field remained between 1-5 nT, and Bz varied between +/- 6 nT. Phi angle was predominantly in a negative (towards the sun) orientation.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced through day one (27 Mar) due to continued influences from a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind parameters are expected to return to nominal levels on day two (28 Mar) as the CH HSS becomes less influential. By day three (29 Mar) levels are likely to become enhanced again due to the anticipated influence of a polar-connected, positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels over the past 24 hours due to negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Forecast: Field conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Mar) due to ongoing effects from a negative polarity CH HSS. By day two (28 Mar) mostly quiet levels are anticipated as this CH HSS pushes downstream of Earth. Unsettled to active levels are anticipated on day three (29 Mar) with the onset of another CH HSS, albeit positive polarity.

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