[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Apr 10 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Apr 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (10-12 Apr).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels over the next two days (10-11 Apr), with high levels likely by day three (12 Apr) due to anticipated CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the likely arrival of an anticipated CIR. Solar wind speeds began the period near 475 km/s, then reached speeds at approximately 540 km/s at 10/0900 UTC. Total field was elevated and reached a peak of 10 nT. The Bz component fluctuated between +/-7 nT. Phi angle was primarily negative.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced early on day one (10 Apr) as CIR effects continue. Further enhancements are expected with the arrival of the CH HSS midday on day one, continuing into days two and three (11-12 Apr).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached active levels due to influences from the CIR.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active, with an isolated period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming on day one (10 Apr). Conditions on day two (11 Apr) are expected to be quiet to active, with G1 conditions likely. Day three (12 Apr) should see conditions remain at unsettled to active levels as CH HSS effects persist.

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