[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Apr 13 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Apr 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. New Region 2704 (N10E45, Bxo/beta) was numbered during the period, but remained inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (13-15 Apr).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on all three days of the forecast period (13-15 Apr) due to continued CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected waning CH HSS effects. Solar wind speeds started the period near 525 km/s and gradually decreased to 450 km/s. Total field strength ranged between 3-5 nT, while the Bz component was variable. Phi angle remained in a mostly negative orientation.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain slightly enhanced for days one and two (13-14 Apr) as CH HSS effects continue. By day three (15 Apr), CH HSS influence is expected to diminish, returning the solar wind environment to near ambient background levels.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with an isolated active period due to influences from the waning CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods on days one and two (13-14 Apr) as CH HSS effects persist. By day three (15 Apr) conditions should see a return to quiet to unsettled levels as influence from the negative polarity CH HSS wanes.

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