[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2018 Apr 23 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 Apr 23 0149 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 16 - 22 April 2018

Solar activity was very low. Region 2706 (N03, L=281, class/area Dao/130 on 22 Apr) produced the strongest flare of the period, a B5 at 20/1704 UTC. The region continued slow growth through the end of the reporting period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ranged from normal to high levels on 10-20 Apr; high levels on 22 Apr and moderate to high levels for the remaining days of the reporting period. The peak flux observed was 24,100 pfu at 21/2120 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet until 20 Apr, when unsettled to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic conditions were observed in response to CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS. Total field peaked at 23 nT around 20/0510 UTC and slowly declined to around 5 nT by late on 20 Apr. Solar wind speeds were increased from around 290 km/s to a peak of near 620 km/s during the HSS proper late on 20 Apr. The geomagnetic response decreased to quiet to unsettled conditions over 21 Apr and finally to quiet on 22 Apr as influence from the CH HSS waned.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 April - 19 May 2018

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 23-30 Apr and 07-19 May; normal to moderate levels are expected from 01-06 May. Elevated levels of electron flux are expected due to the anticipation of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on 26 Apr, 06 May, 09-10 May and 19 May; active levels are expected on 27 Apr, 07-08 Apr and 18 May; G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 17 May. All enhancements in geomagnetic field activity are associated with the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remaining days of the outlook periods are expected to be mostly quiet.

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