[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 May 21 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 May 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels. A new region of emerging flux was observed near the NE limb. It will be assigned an active region number if it persists. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low all three days (21-23 May).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the next three days (21-23 May). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, indicated a nominal solar wind environment. Credible solar wind speeds were around or below 400 km/s. Total magnetic field strength was below 5 nT and no significant periods of negative Bz were observed. Phi angle was oriented in the negative sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be at nominal levels on days one and two (21-22 May). On day three (23 May), solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced due to anticipated onset from a polar connected, positive polarity, CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field remained quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on days one and two (21-22 May). Unsettled to active levels are expected on day three (23 May) with the expected onset of a polar connected, positive polarity, CH HSS.

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