[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 May 25 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 May 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low with only B-class flare activity observed. The largest flare of the period was a B9 at 24/1230Z from Region 2710 (N17E11). Regions 2711 (N04W61, Cso/beta) and 2712 (N17E49, Cso/beta) were stable and mostly inactive. No CMEs were observed in available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low, with a chance of C-class flares all three days (25-27 May).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels again on day one (25 May) and increase to moderate to high levels on days two and three (26-27 May) due to CH HSS influences.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of the waning influences of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed decreased from about 475 km/s to around 400 km/s. Total field strength was weak at 2 to 4 nT and only weak Bz deviations were observed. The phi angle was primarily positive.

Forecast: CH HSS influences are expected to continue waning on day one (25 May) and a return to a slow solar wind regime is anticipated for days two and three (26-27 May).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on days one and two (25-26 May) as CH HSS influences wane. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (27 May) due to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.

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