[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 May 28 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 May 28 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2712 (N16E24, Cso/beta) exhibited minor growth this period but produced only low-level B-class flare activity. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a slight chance for isolated C-class flare activity over the next three days (28-30 May).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels this period and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to range from normal to moderate levels over the next three days (28-30 May) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters became slightly enhanced this period in response to the influence of a positive polarity, north polar-connected CH HSS. Solar wind speeds increased from initial values near 350 km/s to around 400 km/s by the end of the period. Total field strength briefly reached a peak of 6 nT and Bz was mostly northward throughout the period. Solar wind density increased from around 4 particles per cubic cm early in the period to around 8 after mid-period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced on days one and two (28-29 May) under CH HSS influence. A return to near-background levels is expected over the course of day three (30 May) as CH HSS influence subsides and a nominal solar wind regime prevails.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet throughout the period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one and two (28-29 May) due to CH HSS influence. Generally quiet conditions are expected to prevail on day three (30 May) with the return of a background solar wind environment.

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