[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Jun 01 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Jun 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2712 (N16W29, Dro/beta-gamma) remained largely unchanged from last period and continued to produce frequent low-level B-class flare activity. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels over the next three days (01-03 Jun) with a chance for isolated C-class flare activity.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels on day one (01 Jun) with high levels likely on days two and three (02-03 Jun). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters became enhanced this period due to the effects of a CIR followed by the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds steadily increased from intial valus of around 350 km/s to a peak value of 681 km/s, observed late in the period. Total field strength values reached a peak of 17 nT, Bz briefly reached -12 nT, and solar wind density reached a peak of 43 particles per cubic cm during the initial onset of the CIR early this period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced under continued CH HSS influence over the course of the forecast period (01-03 Jun).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels this period under the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms conditions are expected on day one (01 Jun) and likely on day two (02 Jun) due to the continued influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Active conditions are expected on day three (03 Jun) as CH HSS influence begins to weaken.

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