[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Jun 04 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Jun 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2712 (N14W70) decayed to plage and was largely quiescent throughout the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagragh imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels over the next three days (04-06 Jun).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 26,889 pfu observed at 03/1830 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high to very high levels each of the next three days (04-06 Jun) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the weakening influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds decreased from initial values between 700-800 km/s to end-of-period values near 550-600 km/s. Total field strength values were steady near 5 nT and Bz remained near 0 nT throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced through days one and two (04-05 Jun) under continued, but weakening, CH HSS influence. Over the course of day three (06 Jun), the solar wind environment is expected to return to background levels as a nominal solar wind regime prevails.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels this period under continued, but weakening, negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (04-05 Jun) as CH HSS influence slowly wanes. By day three (06 Jun), field conditions are expected to be at predominately quiet levels.

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