[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Jun 13 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Jun 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2713 (N03E63, Bxo/beta) was stable and inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels over the next three days (13-15 Jun).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 1206 pfu observed at 12/2125 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels on day one (13 Jun), then decrease to normal to moderate levels on days two and three (14-15 Jun). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal, background levels. Solar wind speed averaged around 300 km/s. Total field was less than 5 nT. Phi was mostly negative.

Forecast: Minor enhancements in the solar wind environment are expected from a negative polarity CH HSS on day one (13 Jun). A return to background levels is expected on days two and three (14-15 Jun).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to increase to unsettled levels early on day one (13 Jun) as a result of weak effects from a negative polarity CH HSS. Days two and three (14-15 Jun) are expected to be quiet under a background solar wind.

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