[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Jun 21 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Jun 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2714 (N08W73, Bxo/beta) underwent some growth earlier in the period, but began to decay as the period progressed. Region 2713 (N05W44, Dso/beta) underwent decay during the period and was inactive. Region 2715 (N08E14, Dai/beta) was stable and managed a few optical flares and a C2 flare at 21/0115Z.

A CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery, first visible at 20/2124Z off the west limb. However, given that its narrow and the source region is beyond the limb, its trajectory is not Earth-directed. No additional CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low, with a chance for C-class flares all three days (21-23 Jun) primarily due to the flare probability of Region 2715.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on day one (21 Jun) and increase to moderate levels on days two and three (22-23 Jun), with a chance for high levels on day three due to CH HSS influences.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were nominal. Total field strength ranged primarily from 3 to 4 nT and the Bz component underwent only weak deviations. Solar wind speed decreased from 450 to 400 km/s. The phi angle was primarily positive.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to trend toward nominal levels over the next three days (21-23 Jun).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet as responses decreased under the slower and weaker solar wind environment.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily quiet all three days (21-23 Jun).

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