[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Jun 23 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Jun 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low over the period with minor B-class flaring observed from Region 2715 (N08W15, Dac/beta). Slight decay was observed in the penumbral area of Region 2715. Slight growth was observed in Region 2713 (N05W73, Dao/beta) as it approached the west limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels with a chance for C-class flare activity over the next three days (23-25 Jun).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels each of the next three days (23-25 Jun) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind began the period at nominal levels with solar wind speed between 320-350 km/s and total field from 3-7 nT. A gradual increase in total field was observed reaching a maximum of 16 nT at 23/1147 UTC. The Bz component had a maximum southward deflection of -15 nT at 23/1147 UTC. Solar wind speed increased to 454 km/s by 23/1027 UTC. Phi angle was oriented in a mostly positive (away) solar sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be enhanced under continuing influence from a polar connected, positive polarity CH HSS over the next three days (23-25 Jun).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels through 23/0900 UTC. During the 23/0900-1200 UTC period, active levels were observed due to the onset of CIR/CH HSS activity.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to active levels through the rest of day one (23 Jun). Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on days two and three (24-25 Jun) as CH HSS activity persists.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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