[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Jul 07 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Jul 07 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels this period due to a long-duration C1 flare observed at 06/2007 UTC from an unnumbered region behind the E limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery. Forecast: For the next three days (07-09 Jul, solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a slight chance for C-class activity, due to activity from behind the E limb.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels during the summary period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels this period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (07-09 Jul). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was mostly nominal through the period. Total field ranged between 2-8 nT while the Bz component varied between +/-4 nT. Wind speeds began the period near 440 km/s, but slowly increased to about 515 km/s at periods end. Phi angle was in a predominately positive sector throughout the period, but rotated to a negative orientation from about 07/0100-0500 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to persist at nominal levels on days one and two (07-08 Jul). Mid to late on day three (09 Jul) a slight enhancement is possible due to influence from multiple disappearing solar filaments (DSFs) from 05 July and mentioned in previous discussion products.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on days one and two (07-08 Jul) under a nominal solar wind regime. Day three (09 Jul) is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels due to influence from the aforementioned filament activity from 05 July.

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