[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Jul 09 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Jul 09 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels under a spotless solar disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery. Forecast: For the next three days (09-11 Jul) solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a slight chance for C-class activity, due to activity from behind the E limb.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels with a peak flux of 342 pfu observed at 08/2010 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (09-11 Jul). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a slightly enhanced environment. Total field (Bt) ranged between 1-5 nT while the Bz component varied between -2 nT to +3 nT. Wind speeds began the period near 500 km/s for a period of 2 hours before decreasing to an average of about 450 km/s. Phi angle was in a mostly negative orientation through about 09/0230 UTC before rotating to a steady positive sector through periods end.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to persist at nominal levels until mid to late on day one (09 Jul) when a slight enhancement is possible due to influence from multiple disappearing solar filaments (DSFs) from 05 July. Enhancements are expected through day two (10 Jul) into day three (11 Jul).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one through three (09-11 Jul), with isolated active periods likely on 09-10 Jul, due to influence from the aforementioned filament activity from 05 July.

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