[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Jul 11 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Jul 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low as the visible disk remained spotless and no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low all three days (11-13 Jul) due to lack of active regions.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels all three days (11-13 Jul). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slow solar wind regime with a slightly enhanced IMF that was likely attributable to the anticipated transient arrival. Total field strength was mostly between 8 and 10 nT. The Bz component was mostly northward until near 11/0400Z, when southward deviations were observed near -5 nT. Solar wind speed averaged between 300 and 350 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly positive.

Forecast: Total IMF strength is expected to remain slightly enhanced into day one (11 Jul) as the likely transient passes over Earth, while solar wind speed is expected to remain slow. Days two and three (12-13 Jul) are likely to see a return to a nominal conditions.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (11 Jul) in response to the enhanced IMF. Days two and three (12-13 Jul) are expected to be quiet.

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