[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Jul 16 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Jul 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low under a spotless solar disk. An 8 degree long filament erupted along a NE-SW oriented channel centered at N15E44, first observed on GONG imagery at 16/0712 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low all three days (16-18 Jul).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels all three days (16-18 Jul). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels through about 16/0230 UTC when a SSBC from a positive to a negative orientation occurred. After the SSBC, total field increased from about 5-6 nT to a maximum of 10 nT while the Bz component reached a maximum southward extent of near -8 nT. Wind speeds remained steady at an average of about 330 km/s throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be slightly enhanced for the remainder of day one (16 Jul) and nominal on days two and three (17-18 Jul).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to weak, negative polarity CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Jul) due to influence from a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. Days two and three (17-18 Jul) should be mostly quiet as CH HSS effects diminish.

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