[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Jul 22 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Jul 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. New Region 2716 (N16, Lo=200) decayed to plage. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low all three days (22-24 Jul).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (22-24 Jul). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, suggested waning influence from positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds declined from a brief peak of 590 km/s at 21/1514 UTC to near 500 km/s by the periods end. Total magnetic field strength declined to between 3-6 nT after 21/1330 UTC. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive sector.

Forecast: Solar wind speed is expected to decrease on day one (22 Jul) as CH HSS conditions diminish. By late on day two and continuing through day three (23-24 Jul), the onset of a CIR in advance of a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to cause an enhancement in solar wind parameters. Solar wind data from STEREO-A suggest wind speeds of 600-650 km/s at likely.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Jul) as positive polarity CH HSS effects slowly wane. In response to the onset of influence from a negative polarity CH HSS, active conditions are likely on day two (23 Jul) and G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on day three (24 Jul).

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