[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Aug 19 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Aug 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2718 (S06W12, Axx/alpha) exhibited minor decay this period and new Region 2719 (S06E50, Bxo/beta) emerged with spots, but was otherwise unremarkable.

A filament eruption centered near S09W06 was observed at around 19/0600 UTC, and an associated CME was first observed in LASCO/C2 imagery beginning at 19/0736 UTC. Analysis is underway in order to determine if the CME will be geoeffective; see the 20/0000 UTC forecast discussion for more information. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 19-21 Aug.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 7,220 pfu observed at 18/1850 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 19 Aug with moderate levels expected on 20-21 Aug in response to elevated geomagnetic field activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to decrease this period as the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS subsided.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced on 20-21 Aug due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached unsettled levels early in the period followed by predominately quiet conditions as positive polarity CH HSS influence subsided. Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet and unsettled on 19 Aug. Active levels are expected on 20-21 Aug due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS.

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