[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Sep 09 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Sep 09 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Slight growth and consolidation was observed in the leader spots of Region 2721 (N10W22, Cro/beta) while slight decay occurred in the smaller trailing spots. Other activity included a prominence eruption that was observed beginning at 09/0815 UTC in SDO/AIA 304 imagery and at 09/0824 UTC in 171 imagery off the SW limb. Further coronagraph imagery is needed to assess any potential CME.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 09-11 Sep.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 1,090 pfu observed at 08/1915 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 09-10 Sep with normal levels likely on 11 Sep due to enhanced geomagnetic field activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels with solar wind speed ranging from 360-436 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-6 nT while the Bz component was between +6/-4 nT. Phi angle was variable throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced late on 10 Sep through 11 Sep due to the effects of a CIR followed by the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 09 Sep under a nominal solar wind regime. Active conditions are expected late on 10 Sep due to the effects of a CIR preceding CH HSS influence. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels, with a chance for G2 (Moderate) storm levels, are expected on 11 Sep due to the influence of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS.

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